Per FPI ESPN, ACC Bowl Watch: After Holy Cross win, Syracuse odds drop in postseason

Syracuse, N.Y. — Syracuse football prevailed over Holy Cross on Saturday, but the Orange’s chances of reaching the bowl game actually dropped, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index projections.

Indicators currently project the Orange to finish with 5.5 wins, down one-tenth from last week. This gives Syracuse only a 48.5% chance of reaching the bowl game.

The Orange’s victory over Holy Cross was largely viewed as a windfall, and Syracuse played mostly as expected.

The change is likely a reflection of UNLV’s dominance over Fresno State (59-14) on Saturday, making this week’s game seem a much more difficult task. UConn also played well, dismantling Buffalo (47-3) and making the Orange’s final non-conference game tougher on paper.

Two national experts continue to predict that Syracuse will miss the postseason altogether.

I’m still more optimistic, but as with the rest of this week’s predictions, I think Syracuse has a lot of room for improvement if it hopes to reach a major postseason destination.

Here’s how things might go in my head.

College Football Playoff: Miami

The controversial Hail Mary call at the end of Miami’s victory over Virginia Tech likely kept the ACC’s dream of having two teams in the College Football Playoffs alive. I think the only way for this to happen is for Miami to end with its only loss in the ACC title game. I still think the Hurricanes are the favorites to win and that gives the league an automatic bid.

Gator Bowl (Jacksonville, Fla.) vs. SEC: Louisville

The ACC traditionally sends one of its better teams to this game. With Clemson and Notre Dame running the past two years, Louisville is next on the list.

Pop-Tarts Bowl (Orlando, FL) vs. Big 12: Notre Dame

The ACC has sent a ranked team to this game for seven consecutive years. Notre Dame is always extremely attractive. Right now, the Fighting Irish are out of the College Football Playoff conversation.

Duke’s Mayo Bowl (Charlotte, NC) vs. Big Ten: Clemson

This game has had a representative from North Carolina or Virginia for nine years in a row. Given Clemson’s recent dominance, the team hasn’t had a chance to take on the Tigers very often.

Holiday Bowl (San Diego, Calif.) vs. Pac-12: Southern Methodist

The Mustangs’ lone loss to Brigham Young doesn’t look too bad, and the Holiday Bowl team would probably be happy to take one of the three schools in the ACC Western Division.

Pinstripe Bowl (Bronx, New York) vs. Big Ten: Pittsburgh

Boston College and Pittsburgh are logical options to anchor this Northeast bowl. Pittsburgh hasn’t played here since 2016.

Sun Bowl (El Paso, Texas) vs. Pac-12: Boston College

Boston College is having a good season. A Pac-12 representative can provide fans.

Military Bowl (Annapolis, Maryland) vs. American: Duke

Teams from North Carolina and Virginia have participated in this game for six years in a row. This has not been achieved in North Carolina since 2019.

Alamo Bowl (San Antonio, Texas) vs. Big 12: California

The ACC’s Pac-12 contingent will participate in Pac-12 bowl games this season. This one avoids an ACC-ACC matchup.

Fenway Bowl (Boston, Mass.) vs. American: Syracuse

The Fenway Bowl team will want fans to support the team from the Northeast. Only Syracuse remains.

Gasparilla Bowl (Tampa, Fla.) vs. TBD: Virginia Tech

Virginia Tech fans travel, and Tampa is an interesting place.

Birmingham Bowl (Birmingham, Alabama) – TBD: North Carolina

The Tar Heels have a tough schedule that will likely allow them to qualify for a bowl game, but UNC fans won’t be willing to travel given how this season is going.

Los Angeles Bowl (Los Angeles, California vs. Mountain West Conference: Stanford

Stanford will fight to qualify for a bowl. This keeps them close to home.

No bowl games expected: Wake Forest, Florida State, Virginia, North Carolina State, Georgia Tech

National experts

Brad Crawford of 247 Sports puts Syracuse in the Birmingham Bowl against East Carolina

CBS Sports’ Jerry Palm is not projecting Syracuse to bowl

ESPN’s Kyle Bonagura isn’t projecting Syracuse to bowl

ESPN’s Mark Schlabach puts Syracuse in the Fenway Bowl against Memphis

Action Network’s Brett McMurphy puts Syracuse in the Fenway Bowl against Memphis

Athlon’s Steve Lassan puts Syracuse in the Fenway Bowl against Army

Contact Chris Carlson anytime: Email | Twitter | 315-382-7932

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