Clemson’s place in Dinich’s updated top-12 CFP projection

What does the 12-team College Football Playoff look like after Week 5 of the season, according to Heather Dinich?

Dinich, the top insider for the ESPN College Football Playoff, provided her latest projection for the top 12 players according to the CFP selection committee if such rankings were released today.

Dinich’s updated forecast (subscription required) placed Clemson (3-1, 2-0 ACC) at No. 9.

“If Clemson doesn’t win the ACC, it may have a hard time earning one of the seven at-large bids if some of its opponents can’t make it into the committee’s rankings,” Dinich wrote on what to know about the Tigers for the playoffs.

“The Tigers would also lose in a head-to-head tiebreaker to Georgia, which could compete for an at-large bid if it doesn’t win the SEC. Right now, Louisville is the only ranked opponent Clemson faces in the regular season, and the Cardinals just lost to Notre Dame.

The 12-team playoffs will feature the five highest-ranked conference champions and the next seven highest-ranked teams, as determined by the CFP selection committee. The four highest-ranked conference champions will be seeded from first to fourth and will receive a first-round bye, with the fifth highest-ranked conference champion being seeded where they were, or 12th if their final ranking is outside the top 12 .

Alabama is currently in first place in Dinich’s projected CFP top 12, with the rest of the top five, in that order, being Texas, Tennessee, Ohio State and Georgia. Penn State is ranked No. 6, followed by Oregon, Miami and Clemson. Rounding out the top 12 behind Clemson are Michigan, Kansas State and Ole Miss, which means a first-round rematch with Georgia based on rankings currently projected by Dinich.

“Based on the rankings above, the top four seeds are: No. 1 Alabama (SEC champion), No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten champion), No. 3 Miami (ACC champion) and No. 4 Kansas State (Big 12 champion). Everyone would receive a send-off,” Dinich wrote. “The eight remaining seeds would play first-round games on campus. Those matchups would be: No. 12 TBD (fifth conference champion) vs. No. 5 Texas; No. 11 Michigan and No. 6 Tennessee; No. 10 Clemson at No. 7 Georgia; and No. 9 Oregon at No. 8 Penn State.

In addition to his top-12 CFP projection, Dinich highlighted five lessons he learned in the playoffs in September.

One thing Dinich mentioned is that Miami and Clemson are top playoff contenders from the ACC.

“Florida State won the preseason hype, but Miami and Clemson win the ACC race,” Dinich wrote. “The Seminoles, who had a crushing 81 first-place vote in the preseason media poll, were eliminated after an 0-3 start that included losses to conference foes Georgia Tech and Boston College. The Canes are undefeated and Clemson is reeling from a season-opening loss to Georgia. These teams don’t play each other in the regular season, but they are on a collision course for the ACC Championship. Miami and Clemson have the highest percentage of advancing to the ACC title game, with at least 42%, according to ESPN Research. Louisville can still win the ACC and earn an automatic bid, but if the Cardinals fight for one of the seven major spots, they will now lose in a head-to-head tiebreaker with Notre Dame.

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