3 Questions the Bills Must Answer to Avoid Another Ugly Loss to the Jaguars

ORCHARD PARK — There’s really no one explanation for it, but the Jacksonville Jaguars have been a particularly annoying opponent for the Buffalo Bills in recent years.

Since Sean McDermott became head coach in 2017, the Bills are 1-3 against the team, including a heartbreaking playoff loss in the season opener, which was probably the only time you could honestly say the Jaguars were the better team.

In 2018, when both teams entered the match at Highmark Stadium with identical 3-7 records, it was rookie Josh Allen’s first game back from a four-week absence with an elbow injury. Although he completed only eight passes, the Bills’ defense was key to the narrow 24-21 victory.

Then in 2021, with Allen no longer a rookie and having moved up the ranks of NFL quarterbacks, the Bills suffered one of the most inexplicable losses in franchise history, an ignominious 9-6 loss to the 1-6 Jaguars, coached by Urban Meyer and quarterbacked by rookie Trevor Lawrence, a game so egregious that it will long remain in the Bills’ top 10 worst losses.

List: Buffalo Bills suffer biggest loss in history

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And then last season in London, the Bills lost 25-20 on a day when the defense started the game without injured Tre’Davious White, Greg Rousseau and Christian Benford, and then lost Matt Milano and DaQuan Jones in the first quarter, but injuries aside, Buffalo made so many mistakes in every phase of the game that it was hard to keep track.

Yes, the Bills had a tough time with the Jaguars, and now they arrive in Orchard Park on Monday night as a wounded and stubborn dog after losses to the Dolphins and Browns. With the Texans opening the AFC South season 2-0, the Jaguars — after a disastrous end to the 2023 season when they lost their division and a playoff spot — will be a motivated team, and the Bills will likely have their hands full.

Before the game begins, you will be asked three questions:

1. Can Joe Brady get his wide receivers more involved?

The Bills offensive coordinator has shown, even since mid-2023 when he took over from Ken Dorsey, that he wants to establish the run and develop the passing game around that foundational philosophy. Josh Allen has thrown for just 371 yards so far, but the Bills are 2-0, so who’s to argue with that approach?

“I think the biggest thing this season is just finding different ways to win,” Brady said. “Whether that’s … winning from the front, running the ball, whether that’s a time and place where we have to throw the ball 50 times. It’s about being willing to adapt to the way the game is played and being able to dictate the terms and, hey, we can win any way we want.”

But when that time comes, when Allen has to improvise 50 plays, who’s going to be the receiver, because outside of Khalil Shakir, who’s so reliable and consistent, there wasn’t much from anyone else. Granted, the Miami game script was unique because of what happened, and the Bills spent most of the second half trying to basically run the clock to triple zero, but through two games, Curtis Samuel, Keon Coleman, Marques Valdes-Scantling and Mack Hollins had combined for just 10 catches for 113 yards.

It was a routine play for Stefon Diggs. Moving on, Dalton Kincaid, who many of us thought would be the primary target in the passing game, has just five catches for 44 yards, and only one of those was a first down.

Samuel’s usage has been a mystery, with the man given a three-year, $24 million contract in free agency playing 27 percent of the snaps in each of the first two games.

“We’re just trying to find an open guy and get everybody involved,” Allen said. “But guys are stepping up and making plays when their numbers are called. “(Thursday night) was weird because you had the ball (in Miami territory) on three different possessions. It’s not going to be mind-blowing numbers on the stat sheet, but when you can put numbers like that on the scoreboard, that’s all you care about.”

2. Will Dorian Williams and Baylon Spector be up to the challenge?

In late July, when the Bills came to St. John Fisher University, there was a lot of excitement surrounding the linebacker duo of Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard, and with good reason. Milano, an All-Pro, was returning after missing more than two-thirds of the 2023 season, and Bernard was coming off a Pro Bowl-caliber season, his first as a starter.

Imagine the havoc these two guys could wreak on Buffalo’s second-tier defense. Well, with two weeks left in the season, Milano is sidelined until at least December, and now Bernard is joining him, likely for a month, leaving linebacker duties to Williams and Spector.

Williams looks to be a liability in pass coverage again, just like he was last season, and Spector is a big unknown, as he has been injured a lot since joining the Bills in 2022. All we really saw of him was playing on special teams until he filled in for Bernard early in the game against the Dolphins, and then he and Williams each had 10 tackles.

“I thought Baylon did a good job,” defensive coordinator Bobby Babich said. “You have to be ready to go, and we’re pouring into these guys, these backups, to make sure we get to a high level of execution. He’s got another year, like all these guys, to get more comfortable. When I was the linebackers coach, I challenged him to take control of our operation and run it like Mike’s linebacker does with the Buffalo Bills, and you know he’s shown he can do it.”

3. Is Von Miller close to being Von Miller?

Many fans and media had given up on the aging edge rusher after his devastating absence in 2023 following ACL surgery. But the 35-year-old has looked rejuvenated so far, recording a sack in each of his two games.

“It was really cool to see Von back as Von,” Babich said. “Encouraged because a little bit of confidence after last year will hopefully do wonders for him.”

According to Pro Football Focus, Miller has been on the field for 41 pass rush plays and has already generated nine pressures, and his pass rush win rate is 22 percent, which is the best on the team. By comparison, Rousseau, who had three sacks in the opener, has a pass rush win rate of 16.1 percent on 56 pass rush plays.

Allen said after the Miami game that he walked up to Miller in the locker room and said, “You look like Von Miller today. That’s what I told him. He made one pivot move, didn’t make it, but one pivot move was pretty scary.”

The Bills are being cautious about Miller’s play count, which is wise since he has played 29 times in each game and his freshness throughout the game and ability to be used in passing situations works well.

“Like I said last week, it just feels good to be able to get the job done in a short week, especially at 35,” Miller said.

Sal Maiorana has covered the Buffalo Bills for four decades, including 35 years as a full-time D&C reporter, and has written numerous books on the team’s history. He can be reached at [email protected] and followed on Twitter @salmaiorana. https://profile.democratandchronicle.com/newsletters/bills-blast

This article originally appeared in the Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Bills can avoid another ugly loss to Jaguars by increasing their commitment in 3 areas