College Football Surprise Picks – Week 3

Memphis (+6.5) vs. Florida State

Best Odds: +220 at BetMGM

The Florida State Seminoles’ problems extend beyond quarterback DJ Uiagelelei’s play. They have trouble consistently stopping the run and haven’t had much success running the ball themselves.

That said, Uiagalelei’s struggles are why the Memphis Tigers will win this game. He’s only completed a third of his throws 10+ yards downfield this season, and his inaccuracy allows teams to set up the box and create pressure.

This Tigers defense is real. They have a great linebacker corps and they have Havoc on almost 25 percent of their defensive snaps. They have a run stuff rate of 23 percent and rank 19th in the country in total defense.

Quarterback Seth Henigan leads a balanced offense that has scored more than 20 points in 29 consecutive games. He has a solid running back in Mario Anderson Jr., and both will look to take advantage of an FSU defense that is allowing 4.5 points on plays that stretch to the half.

Florida State doesn’t have explosive plays and its defense allows far too many of them. That’s a recipe for disaster against a Memphis offense that runs the ball very well and has a 1.41 EPA on successful passes in 2024.

I expect Uigelelei to be forced into plays, but that simply won’t happen. Memphis will take the lead, and its running game will shorten the contest and keep the pressure on the home team.

Mike Norvell’s former team comes to Tallahassee with something to prove. A win over the Noles would earn them a shot at the College Football Playoff, and that’s exactly what the Tigers will get when the final whistle blows.

North Texas (+10) vs. Texas Tech

Best Odds: +340 at FanDuel

Tahj Brooks looks set to make his Texas Tech Red Raiders debut on Saturday, which is great news for their offense. The problem is he comes off an injury list that has become quite crowded.

Texas Tech will be without seven defensive starters against the North Texas Mean Green and could have three or four more players missing from the offensive line. That defense has struggled this season, allowing 88 points in its first two games.

But it’s not just the raw stats that show the Red Raiders defense is ready to tear apart. In addition to their 43% pass success rate against them, they’re also getting the pieces. Only seven teams have allowed more plays of 10+ yards than Texas Tech — three of which went on to play an extra game. And only Jacksonville State and Georgia Tech have allowed more plays of 20+ yards.

North Texas has 51 plays of 10+ yards and ranks 10th in 20-yard plays this season. While they haven’t faced much competition so far, quarterback Chandler Morris is a TCU transfer who has seen action in the Big 12 before. The key here will be success on third downs. The Mean Green rank third in college football in converting two-thirds of their third down attempts, and their ability to run the ball should keep them ahead of the chains.

The Texas Tech offense will find success against North Texas’ average defense, but Boyd won’t have an easy time against a solid front seven. On the other hand, the Mean Green will be able to shorten the game by keeping it on the ground with Damashja Harris.

This will help keep the Red Raiders offense off the field, much like Washington State did last week when they held Texas Tech to just 16 points. That should be enough to help North Texas have a chance to win at the end.

Colorado vs. Colorado State (+7.5)

Best odds: +225 at bet365

The Colorado Buffaloes hype train may not be completely derailed, but it certainly looks shaky. The Colorado State Rams would like to be the team that throws the Buffaloes off the tracks.

The Rams lost a close 2OT game to their rivals last season and made it clear they wanted revenge, with star quarterback Tory Horton saying, “We owe them one,” among other fiery comments — and while he’s questionable with a groin injury, it’s hard to imagine him not playing, if he can even run.

Head coach Jay Norvell has also been bashing Coach Prime this offseason, and there’s plenty of bad blood from the 2023 game where Travis Hunter suffered a lacerated liver. Needless to say, the Rams have all the motivation they could want.

But they’ll be able to get the job done even without emotion. The loss of Shilo Sanders — who will miss several weeks after forearm surgery — makes Colorado’s already fragile defense even more vulnerable, and he’s not the only injury Colorado is dealing with. The status of cornerback Isaiah Hardge is up in the air, as is that of defensive end Chidozi Nwankwo.

On offense, Shedeur Sanders may be without running back Dallan Hayden. That complicates the running game, which has already struggled as he is Buffalo’s only 20+ yard rusher this season.

Colorado had trouble protecting Sanders against Nebraska’s pass rush last week, as he was tackled five times and pressured relentlessly. The lack of a running game will make it easier for the Rams to keep their ears open against the pass rush, and I promise those hits will hurt more than the ones Nebraska delivered last week.

With that in mind, the best way to stop Sanders is to keep him on the sidelines. Norvell has shown a willingness to run the ball, and Justin Marshal should have success. He topped the 100-yard mark on the ground against Texas and teamed with Keegan Holles last week as they combined for 156 yards on 10 attempts each.

Colorado’s defense has a terrible run percentage and doesn’t create many plays in the backfield. The Buffaloes have limited explosive running plays, but four Huskers players registered at least one 10-yard carry last week.

The Buffaloes don’t generate turnovers, they don’t convert on third downs, they can’t run the ball, and they can’t protect their quarterback. Add to that the fact that they’re one of the most punishing teams in college football, and I see a recipe for everything to fall apart in an incredibly hostile environment. Give me the Rams, so they can get their revenge.