Will heavy favorite SMU be ready to pull off a surprise against BYU? – Deseret News

DALLAS — Some of the most memorable and improbable victories of Kalani Sitake’s nine-year career at BYU came in September.

Since Sitake replaced Bronco Mendenhall in 2016, BYU has beaten teams like Arizona (twice), Wisconsin, Tennessee, USC, Utah, Baylor and Arkansas in September, playing as an underdog and at times having an advantage over other teams.

Don’t look now, but BYU is a serious 10.5-point underdog on Friday night against also-unbeaten SMU here in the Big D, even though the Cougars are 4-0 all-time against the Mustangs. Kickoff is 5:00 PM MDT at the intimate, 32,000-seat Gerald J. Ford Stadium, and the interconference game will be televised by ESPN2.

Can BYU rekindle the magic of September? Will home-field advantage, an explosive offense and momentum from a standout 2023 season allow SMU to overtake a BYU team that hasn’t won a college football road game in nearly a year?

Even Sitake knows he has a tall order ahead of him; Southern Methodist (2-0) has won nine straight home games and is averaging 53.9 points per game in those mostly one-sided games.

“I know they’re a really explosive team and they’re the favorites in this game,” Sitake said Monday. “It’s an opportunity for our guys to go in there and find ways to improve and refine.”

But can they win? Most analysts don’t give them much of a chance. ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) gives BYU just a 21 percent chance of winning. That’s less than the Cougars’ current odds of beating No. 11 Utah on Nov. 9 in Salt Lake City (23.1 percent).

According to FPI, the Cougars have the least chance of winning at UCF on October 26 (17.7%).

SMU coach Rhett Lashlee also plays the underdog card, noting that schools moving from the Group of Five to the Power Four, like SMU moving from the AAC to the ACC, often struggle in their first year.

The Cougars know this all too well, as they went 2-7 in their first Big 12 campaign last year and 5-7 overall.

“They’re a good team,” BYU defensive end Isaiah Bagnah said. “We have (the same) kind of attitude. We have something to say. We have to come out and show what kind of team we are this year. With that in mind, it’s cool that they’re new in the conference (P4).”

Speaking of September upsets, BYU is 4-2 against the spread in its last six games as a double-digit underdog. The most notable recent wins in the Sitake era when BYU didn’t have much of a chance to win were last year’s 38-31 win at Arkansas, a 26-20 double-overtime win over Baylor in 2022 and a 26-17 win over No. 18 Utah in 2021.

Before that, BYU beat Tennessee and USC in 2019, as well as No. 6 Wisconsin 24-21 in Madison in 2018. Of course, there was no shortage of upsets in September — crushing losses to LSU (27-0) and Wisconsin (40-6) in 2017.

SMU failed to impress in a 29-24 win over Nevada as a 27-point favorite in the opener, giving BYU fans hope that Friday’s game was winnable. But the Ponies were back to their old tricks last week, crushing Houston Christian 59-7 at home.

Don’t be fooled, Sitake said, reminding reporters that teams make their biggest improvements between their first and second games.

“You have to assume that teams are going to be better and give their all every week,” Sitake said. “We have to imagine that every team is going to be better than what we see every week. I imagine Southern Illinois is going to be better next week, SMU is going to be better this week.

“They’ve got two games to play and we’ve got one to go out. We’ve got two games to watch and see what they do, even though in that second game against them they dominated the game from the start. I don’t think there’s much to show there, other than we got to see the personnel and the people they have and what we got to see is a lot of talent.”

BYU also featured several talented players, even though they were playing against an FCS team.

Point guard Jake Retzlaff appeared ready to go and took care of the ball after struggling with turnovers in four games he started last year, all of which ended in losses.

“I thought he played really solid,” BYU offensive coordinator Aaron Roderick said. “He did a good job, took care of the ball, was accurate. Solid start.”

Roderick said one thing the BYU offense can improve on is playing more effectively in the red zone.

“We’re trying to (figure out) how to finish those two drives in the second quarter,” he said. “I thought that was one thing we could have done better. Not having turnovers was one of the highlights of the game, but we turned the ball over twice. Luckily, we were able to get them back. That’s something we can work on.”

Defensively, there’s still a lot of work to do — especially when it comes to slowing down the quarterback’s running game. SMU has been heavily reliant on the run-pass option on offense, which doesn’t bode well for a BYU defense that has allowed SIU quarterback DJ Williams to run wild.

“They like RPOs. They’re good athletes, really good team, well-coached,” said BYU defensive end Talan Alfrey, a member of the 2022 BYU team that beat SMU 24-23 in the New Mexico Bowl. “So we’re excited to get the opportunity … to go there and play against that style.

“I was part of a team in a playoff game that was able to play against that offense. It was cool to be a part of that. … It’s going to be a challenge, but we’ve been trained well on how to handle it, so we’re excited to get it done.”

Under an agreement signed last October, SMU will resume play in Provo in 2027.