Why the Cowboys Will Miss the Postseason

The NFL experiences tremendous player turnover every year, and this is especially noticeable during the postseason.

Since 1990, an average of 5.85 new teams have made the playoffs that missed the previous year, and at least four new teams have reached the postseason in each of the last 34 years.

So, which teams will rock the party this season, and which ones could be a surprise? Let’s break it down and find some betting values.

Team to Make Playoffs: Seahawks (+180, DraftKings)

After making the playoffs in 2022, the Seahawks narrowly lost last year, finishing 9-8, tied with the Packers, but Green Bay made it into the game on a tiebreaker.

However, I am hopeful that Seattle will return to the playoffs in coach Mike Macdonald’s first season.

Macdonald coordinated a historic defense in Baltimore last year that saw the Ravens become the first team in NFL history to win the Triple Crown. They led the league in fewest points allowed (16.5 per game), sacks (60) and takeaways (31).

Seattle has talent at every level of the defense, led by young defenders Riq Woollen and Devon Witherspoon.

Seattle’s offense also has a chance to improve under new coordinator Ryan Grubb, who helped orchestrate Michael Penix Jr.’s near-Heisman-winning season in Washington last year.

Expect Grubb to emphasize play-action passing, increased tempo and creativity in the red zone, which will help Geno Smith, as well as improved health on an offensive line that couldn’t stay on the field last year.

The Seahawks play in the tough NFC West division and have a middle-of-the-pack schedule, but don’t be surprised to see Seattle improve significantly and return to the postseason.

Team that won’t make the playoffs: Cowboys (+170, BetMGM)

The Cowboys have won exactly 12 games in three consecutive seasons, with two of them resulting in the NFC East title.

This year, however, the team faces the 11th-toughest schedule in the league, according to Sharp Football, based on Las Vegas’ projected win total.

Dak Prescott had the best year of his career in 2023, nearly winning MVP, but he did it against the easiest schedule opposing defenses have to offer. Dallas is adding players this year, and it doesn’t help that the offense lost left guard Tyron Smith and center Tyler Biadasz.

Brock Hoffman, the projected successor at center, has played only briefly since entering the NFL as an undrafted free agent in 2022.

Rookie Tyler Guyton made one career start at left quarterback for Oklahoma, in an offense that rarely utilized traditional three-step dropbacks.

The defense could also regress after losing coordinator Dan Quinn and defensive backs coach Joe Whitt Jr.

Over the past few seasons, Dallas has struggled with an unsustainable turnover rate.

According to Sharp Football, the Cowboys led the NFL by a wide margin with +130 EPA in interceptions, but that should improve under new management.

NFL Betting?

It’s not all bad news for Dallas, though, after Prescott and CeeDee Lamb were among the league’s most profitable QB-WR duos last year.

However, there is a reason the Cowboys have 9.5 wins and I imagine they will be competing for a playoff spot at the end of the season.