What’s the worst that could happen? How data can help shipowners plan for the unexpected

Understanding the full impact of catastrophic events such as the closure of a major port, a collision or a tsunami on global trade is hampered by a lack of up-to-date data from the shipping industry, according to a prominent analyst.

The discipline of disaster modeling attempts to quantify the overall impact of a single major event, but it relies on accurate data.

But one thing is increasingly clear: Worst-case scenarios are getting worse as ships get bigger, said Robert Muir-Wood, a principal scientist at Moody’s RMS and a pioneer of the discipline.