Notre Dame’s Huge Win (and the Domino Effect), Iowa’s Road to Victory, and USC on the Border

The expansion of the College Football Playoff is arguably the biggest change in the history of the sport—more significant than the move from the Bowl Championship Series to the four-team CFP a decade ago. Each week, The Hotline will delve into the CFP race, looking at the favorites, the teams on the bubble and key developments across the landscape.

The first full week of the regular season featured multiple losses, several close calls, and one result that had major implications for the College Football Playoff qualifying process: Notre Dame’s 23-13 victory over Texas A&M.

Due to their Independent status, the Irish are not eligible for an automatic bid. Instead, they must secure one of the seven at-large places.

At 11-1, the Irish are a sure thing in the CFP. And they’ll likely cross the line at 10-2. (Never underestimate the power of brand bias.)

An away win Saturday night over the 20th-place Aggies gave their prospects a big boost.

Notre Dame’s remaining schedule is manageable, if not entirely lean, with games against teams like Purdue and Louisville, Stanford and Florida State.

The USC final will be tough, that’s for sure. But the Irish may be well-prepared for the CFP at this point.

And if they take one of the bids, there will be only six teams left that are not the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC champions.

We know which conferences will get a chance from the selection committee once those valuable bids are made, and which ones won’t.

What’s good for the Irish is bad for the ACC and Big 12.

For the projection…

Automatic offers

The top five conference champions will receive automatic bids to the CFP, and the top four will receive byes in the opening round, regardless of their committee rankings. The top team in the Group of Five will be seeded according to its rankings.

No. 1 Georgia (SEC): The Bulldogs will meet resistance somewhere along their path to a national championship. Or they won’t.

No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten): Sure, the Buckeyes started slow against Akron. But they looked fantastic against Oregon and Michigan.

No. 3 Utah (Big 12): Our preseason favorite to win the conference played like the team to beat as point guard Cam Rising returned to the lineup after missing the 2023 season.

No. 4 Miami (ACC): The Hurricanes are the clear favorite at this early stage, partly because they played so well at Florida, but mostly because Clemson and Florida State have played terribly.

No. 12: Boise State (Mountain West): Congratulations to UNLV for an impressive win in Houston, and Memphis should be considered for a spot in the Group of Five.

General qualifications

The top seven non-championship teams will receive at-large bids. There is no limit to the number of at-large teams from a conference.

ACC: None. Clemson withdrew from consideration (in a resounding manner). Florida State did the same. So did Virginia Tech. What a mess.

Big 12: None. West Virginia’s one-sided home loss to Penn State was not good news for the Big 12 Conference, especially given the lack of important interconference games for the top teams.

Big Ten: Iowa, Oregon and Penn State. That’s right, folks: Combine their average schedule with an improved offense, and the Hawkeyes are in the running for 10-2. The Nittany Lions were impressive in Morgantown, and the Ducks, despite the scare, should be fine.

SEC: Alabama, Mississippi and Texas. There’s been a lot of talk on social media about the mighty SEC going 1-3 in the big games in Week 1. But from our perspective, all the top teams are undefeated.

Independent: Notre Dame. The committee should consider strength of schedule in both the selection and seeding processes. But if the Irish win 10, they’re in. And we see them winning 10.

Bubble Teams

ACC: None. We’re not suggesting that the ACC is locked into a permanent, bubble-less existence. But at this point, no one is close.

Big 12: Arizona, Kansas State and Oklahoma State. Any one of them could win the conference. Or earn a district spot. Or fall off the bubble entirely. Parity can be a blessing and a curse.

Big Ten: Michigan and USC. We’ll find out if the Wolverines are CFP contenders or contenders after they play Texas this weekend. USC was impressive on Sunday night, but they need LSU to win high-level games in the SEC.

SEC: Missouri, Oklahoma and Tennessee. The Tigers have four obstacles to the CFP, and they are Murray State, Buffalo, Boston College, and UMass. Oh my.

Duels

The teams seeded 5th to 12th will play their first-round matches at the home of the higher-seeded team, with the winners advancing to the quarterfinals.

No. 8 Penn State vs. No. 9 Alabama. It would be reminiscent of the Sugar Bowl matchup of yesteryear, if not for the home fans at Beaver Stadium. The winner will play against the #1 team, Georgia.

No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 10 Mississippi. The only way the Irish can reach the No. 7 seed (or higher) is to win 11 games and not suffer any painful losses. The winner will play No. 2 Ohio State.

No. 6 Oregon vs. No. 11 Iowa. The teams do not play in the regular season, but it is worth noting that the committee will not change the seeding to avoid a repeat of the regular season. The winner will play against number 3 Utah

No. 5 Texas vs. No. 12 Boise State. We don’t assume the loser of the SEC Championship Game will get the No. 5 seed… Just kidding. That’s exactly what we assume. The winner will play against team #4 Miami.

Key matches this week

(All times are Pacific)

Texas at Michigan (9:00 a.m. on Fox): If the playoffs weren’t expanded, the loser in Ann Arbor would be in serious trouble. The stakes aren’t as high in a 12-team format — and that hasn’t diminished expectations one bit.

Iowa State at Iowa (12:30 p.m. on CBS): It’s a must-win situation for the Hawkeyes to earn an invite to the league, but not for the Cyclones, who don’t have anyone like Ohio State in their path to a Big 12 title.

Tennessee vs. NC State (4:30 p.m. on ABC): The Vols probably won’t lose more than two games and have Oklahoma, Alabama, and Georgia on their schedule. They better not lose in Raleigh.

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Originally published: September 3, 2024 at 6:34 AM