NFL Hot Seat Rankings: Mike McCarthy, Nick Sirianni Among Coaches Already Issued Warnings

There was a time when an NFL head coach could feel his ass getting hot if he was nearing the end of his fourth year and had yet to get his program into the postseason. Unfortunately, the stability and patience in a league where one-year twists and turns are no strangers — congratulations again, Houston Texans — are long gone.

These days, you might not survive a slow start to your inaugural campaign — I’m looking at you, Nathaniel Hackett and Frank Reich. No playoffs in three years? See you there. A steady presence in the postseason but disappointing results? Meh. Even entrenched (and legendary) former Super Bowl architects like Bill Belichick and Pete Carroll left after disappointing campaigns in 2023.

“It’s part of the business of the National Football League,” Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy, who failed to end Dallas’ championship drought despite winning 12 games in each of the last three seasons, said recently. “We’re excited and energized by this opportunity that’s before us.

“The only thing we’re guaranteed is 17 games.”

If so, Mike.

But coaches are confident that monitoring hot seats is now a year-round activity… and yes, seven of them – about as many HCs are replaced each year – appear to be heading into 2024 as temperatures rise, those seats being classified as lukewarm or scalding:

7. Matt Eberflus, Chicago Bears

Before 2024, the last two quarterbacks drafted No. 1 overall, Trevor Lawrence of the Jaguars and Bryce Young of the Panthers, saw their coaches fired before their rookie years were complete — and yes, the circumstances were extenuating, especially considering Urban Meyer’s debacle in Jacksonville in 2021. There was speculation about Eberflus’ position ahead of the arrival of presumed savior Caleb Williams this spring. And while the 2022 Heisman Trophy winner appears to have all the pieces of a starting quarterback’s backfield, if his first stint resembles anything close to what Young experienced last year, it’s a good bet this organization — like Carolina — will move quickly to rectify the situation in order to elevate and secure Williams. And that could mean bringing in a guy who specializes in offense, something Eberflus doesn’t.

6. Sean McDermott, Buffalo Bills

That’s pretty low, considering he’s been the master of four consecutive AFC East titles and five consecutive playoff appearances. But the Bills have advanced past the divisional round just once in McDermott’s seven seasons, and he’s set to take over as the defensive quarterback in 2023 after changing offensive coordinators midseason. While salary-cap adjustments could temper expectations this season, the responsibility will fall on McDermott’s desk at some point if this Lombardi-hungry franchise can’t break through soon while quarterback Josh Allen is still in his prime.

5. Doug Pederson, Jacksonville Jaguars

“For us, winning — winning now — is the expectation,” owner Shad Khan said in July, after an offseason when he opened the club’s coffers wide open. “You want to be in the playoffs every year.” Pay attention, coach. Pederson was 9-8 in 2022, and his team finished with a shot at winning the AFC South. Then he was 9-8 in 2023 … thanks to a 1-5 finish, and the Jags were out of the playoffs. It’s also worth noting that the only time Pederson has won more than nine regular-season games was when he led the 2017 Eagles to Super Bowl 52. He may not have the same edict as Lombardi, but Pederson would probably be wise to listen to Khan — although a year after it seemed Jacksonville might tighten its belt in this division, things are definitely up for grabs, as C.J. Stroud’s Texans and Anthony Ricardson’s Colts show that this will be fiercely competitive for some time.

4. Dennis Allen, New Orleans Saints

Recycled after a failed tenure in Oakland that ended a decade ago, he now has a 24-46 career mark and has never appeared in the playoffs as a head coach. And while Allen’s defense has outpaced his offense in the years since quarterback Drew Brees retired, unless he gives this organization a successful reset overall, it’s hard to imagine Allen enjoying another Mardi Gras as a local.

3. Robert Saleh, New York Jets

After stratospheric expectations in 2023, he and GM Joe Douglas were given another mulligan after the team’s season was ruined four plays after QB Aaron Rodgers tore his Achilles tendon. To be fair, Saleh probably doesn’t get enough credit, having posted seven wins in each of the last two seasons and reigning over the league’s second-best defense during that span — all while playing the most consistently poor quarterback game in the NFL. But that clearly isn’t enough now. “We’ve got all this talent, and we’ve got to deploy it. … This is it. It’s time to go. We’ve got to prove ourselves this year,” owner Woody Johnson said in February during Super Bowl week. “We’ve got to do a lot more than seven (wins), definitely.” The Jets are undoubtedly loaded, perhaps even more so than they were in 2023, according to Rodgers, after another active offseason for Douglas. But if Saleh wants to stay with the team until 2025, it is time for production to meet or exceed potential.

2. Nick Sirianni, Philadelphia Eagles

A good example of the fragile nature of coaching is his 36-20 record in three seasons — all of which ended in the playoffs, including a near-win in Super Bowl 57. But Sirianni — admittedly, in his case — and his staff may have been the most disappointing part of a 2023 team that started the season 10-1 … but won just once. Entering 2024, Sirianni is on his third set of coordinators since the start of the 2022 campaign — though OC Kellen Moore and DC Vic Fangio are more experienced than last year’s duo — and he’s lost two locker room leaders he’s relied on openly, C Jason Kelce and DT Fletcher Cox, to retirement.

For all your NFL news, on and off the field: Sign up for the USA TODAY April 4 and Monday newsletters.

With DE Brandon Graham announcing he’s leaving next year, Sirianni may have to exercise tighter control over the reins while younger players like QB Jalen Hurts and WR AJ Brown try to fill the leadership void — something they clearly haven’t done in 2023, occasionally acting on their own to Philadelphia’s detriment. Sirianni and Hurts also have to prove their professional marriage is viable, with a recent ESPN article reporting that their relationship was “fractured” late last season. While this group may be going through a tough emotional transition, it can’t afford to continue to underperform talent-wise — especially with RB Saquon Barkley, DE Bryce Huff, WR Jahan Dotson and a handful of impressive rookies. A third one-year postseason in four years isn’t likely to be a selling point for Sirianni.

The last time we saw him try to navigate a significant contest, his team was blown out by the Packers in a wild loss at AT&T Stadium — ending an 18-game home winning streak for “America’s Team” while marking a third consecutive season of bitterly disappointing playoff elimination. Given the surprisingly convincing loss to the young, inexperienced Pack, not to mention Belichick’s availability, McCarthy’s return for a fifth season — now the last on his contract — in the Big D didn’t seem inevitable.

But he’s back, albeit with a team largely hamstrung by salary cap constraints and wondering whether QB Dak Prescott will return on his own next year — but still carrying with him owner Jerry Jones’s constant mantra of “all in,” trying to become the first squad to win back-to-back NFC East crowns in 20 years … while ending Dallas’ nearly three-year absence from Super Sunday. While Jones didn’t issue the order, it’s hard to imagine a lame duck like McCarthy returning to his position in 2025 without a playoff win this season. At the very least.

***

Follow USA TODAY Sports’ Nate Davis on X, previously on Twitter, @ByNateDavis.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: NFL’s Hottest Coaches Rankings: McCarthy, Sirianni Now on Warning